India is under lockdown for three weeks and there more weeks are extended, totalling up to six weeks. Though essential public services are on and some sectors seeing gradual opening like construction, largely the industries and businesses are closed. The economy may be working at perhaps 10% of its capacity. Six weeks closure is going to break the back of the economy. China has recorded the worst performance in its growth since 1974. The full impact is likely to be the worst. Developed economies like the USA are already recording worst rates of unemployment and even the Government funding to small and medium businesses, airline industries, and banks is not sufficient to put them back on the track.

The Indian labour force is mostly unorganised and hence real data of unemployment is difficult to get, and therefore difficult to quantify. But given the data of public distribution scheme, one can expect that India will see 80-100 million unemployed and this is a very underestimated estimate. Small and medium businesses in India are yet to see any concrete economic package to help them through. India’s subsistence economy due to its structural and fundamental nature-based in agricultural and allied activities might not be hard hit, but in the longer run, India cannot see the development or growth in the economy which is already sluggish due to faulty economic decisions like note-bandi and GST.

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To or not to unlock is a difficult question. Lockdown is generally aimed at flattening the curve so that medical care is not overburdened. It cannot forever stop the spread of the virus. It can, however, slow down the transmission. A country or society cannot be locked down forever. The countries affected by Coronavirus are already worried about the second wave of the pandemic. The most important is the testing of people and tracing the contacts of the affected people and isolating them.

Where is India’s strategy for unlocking?

In the country like the USA, the rival companies like Google and Apple have joined the hands to track the people using the application. South Korea is doing it effectively. And other developed countries are following it. Do we have this strategy in place? India has a deep penetration of mobile connectivity. And it has come up with a strategy to test, track, and isolate individuals using technology.

If we do not have that technology, we have to use manual methods deploying vast human resources to do house-to-house survey. This method was used to track HIV cases in South Africa.

We can perhaps combine human survey backing it with technology.

But even to do that, India will need testing kits and facilities for the patients. This is critical.

The effective and harmless Coronavirus vaccine will take at least one year and even then depending on the production of the vaccine, it will take a long period to vaccinate all people. Though India does not have labs which can develop vaccines, the infrastructure is enough to manufacture vaccines in considerably shorter period.

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That means, we need to consider all these factors and must unlock the country through a proper health policy.

Secondly, India might need to change its economic policy and gear it towards more public-oriented production of goods and services. This means that the tide must be turned towards state socialism instead of reckless privatization.

Thirdly, the unemployment must be looked at from a different perspective which can mean that some kind of universal basic income must be meted out to the needy and the poor.

Author – Mangesh Dahiwale, Human Rights Activist